Possible scenario
Iran Link Emerges
25% Chance
Given the recent UK probes into Iran-backed antisemitic activity, investigators could find evidence of foreign facilitation, surveillance tasking, or funding. This would raise diplomatic tensions with Tehran and intensify calls in Westminster to proscribe the IRGC.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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