Possible scenario
Iran Re-Escalates
25% Chance
Iran could answer the US statement by demonstrating that it can still interfere with shipping despite rising flows. This would most likely take the form of seizures, inspections, drones, or mines calibrated to avoid immediate all-out war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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