Possible scenario
Fragile Flow Recovery
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Iran continues to dispute US authority but cannot fully stop traffic as US Navy escorts and Saudi routing efforts raise effective throughput. Tehran preserves leverage through rhetoric and selective harassment rather than a full military confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.