Possible scenario
Back-Channel Deal
18% Chance
Iran may accept indirect talks through Oman or Qatar if it can claim that its demands forced engagement while avoiding a damaging naval confrontation. A maritime deconfliction arrangement would reduce the immediate oil-security premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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