Possible scenario
Limited Diplomatic Row
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a contained UK-Israel dispute focused on Polanski personally rather than a wider rupture. Israel keeps the ban in place, citing the Green Party vote branding Zionism racism, while UK officials register objections but avoid punitive steps.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.