Possible scenario
Case Advances Normally
35% Chance
The most likely path is that the federal civil case survives early motion practice and moves into discovery. The Trump administration, DHS, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection defend the agents while avoiding a fast public settlement.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.