Possible scenario
Regional Spillover
20% Chance
Cross-border movement through Goma, Kasindi, Bunagana and Lake Kivu creates imported cases in neighboring countries. The key question is whether those cases are isolated quickly or seed sustained transmission in regional cities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Healthcare +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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