Possible scenario
Conflict Drives Spread
30% Chance
Armed groups, roadblocks and attacks on health facilities prevent responders from tracing contacts in several transmission zones. The outbreak remains mostly inside DR Congo but becomes harder to manage and more expensive for donors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Healthcare +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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