Possible scenario
Expanded U.S. Suppression
18% Chance
The Pentagon uses the spotter strike and prior attacks on shipping to justify a wider campaign against IRGC surveillance, drone, and missile nodes. The aim is to restore deterrence without striking core Iranian regime targets, but the risk of miscalculation rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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