Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Incident
38% Chance
Washington and Tehran keep the incident bounded despite Iranian claims that civilians were hit. Oman, Qatar, and the Swiss channel push both sides toward operational deconfliction while U.S. convoy operations continue in the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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