Possible scenario
Calibrated Iranian Retaliation
32% Chance
Iran answers the strike without fully closing the strait, using drones, missiles, fast boats, and regional proxies to raise costs for U.S. patrols. Tehran tries to preserve escalation control while showing that attacks on Iranian vessels carry consequences.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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