Becerra Clear Victory

Becerra remains the favorite because even Hilton's internal poll shows him trailing, and California's Democratic baseline is difficult for a Republican to overcome. The September public poll showing an 18-point Becerra lead likely overstated the margin, but the race still most likely settles into a conventional Democratic win.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.