Possible scenario
Warning Becomes Baseline
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the higher wrongful-detention warning becomes a standing constraint on travel rather than an immediate diplomatic rupture. U.S. companies, universities and consultancies tighten internal travel approvals while Washington and Beijing avoid a public escalation.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Business Services -0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- UAL-1.1%
- DAL-0.7%
- TSLA-0.6%
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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