Possible scenario
Retaliatory Escalation
20% Chance
A less likely but meaningful risk is that Beijing treats the U.S. warning as part of the broader technology and espionage dispute. New exit checks, reciprocal advisories, or another detention would turn a travel notice into a sharper geopolitical event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.6%
- Consumer Services -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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