Possible scenario
Managed De-Escalation
25% Chance
Both governments have incentives to prevent travel-risk warnings from undermining broader economic engagement. A consular channel, case-by-case exits, or quiet assurances could reduce near-term anxiety even if the underlying legal risks remain.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- UAL+1.0%
- DAL+0.8%
- MAR+0.5%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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