Possible scenario
Outage Contained Quickly
45% Chance
Ukrainian operators reroute traffic through backup links and mobile networks, limiting the outage to a short-lived disruption. This is the most likely outcome because Ukraine has repeatedly adapted to Russian infrastructure attacks since 2022.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.