Possible scenario
Infrastructure Campaign Intensifies
30% Chance
Moscow continues using missiles and drones against communications nodes, data centers and energy infrastructure ahead of winter. This would fit Russia’s prior pattern of pressuring Ukrainian civilian systems, but would still be a contained theater escalation rather than a global crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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