Possible scenario
Cyber Spillover Emerges
15% Chance
Physical strikes are followed by cyber operations against Ukrainian networks, banks or government systems. Spillover beyond Ukraine is less likely, but the risk would draw market attention because Russian cyber activity has previously affected European firms and infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Telecommunications -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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