Possible scenario
Netanyahu Contains Fallout
38% Chance
Netanyahu and Likud argue the Army Radio account is incomplete or mischaracterized, emphasizing that no specific October 7 operational warning was concealed. Coalition partners accept the explanation because forcing a crisis before the next election carries political risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.