Possible scenario
Inquiry Pressure Builds
27% Chance
Opposition leaders and former security officials use the Army Radio report to demand a fuller record of what Netanyahu knew before October 7. The most likely near-term result is a parliamentary or comptroller-led process rather than an immediate collapse of the government.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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