Possible scenario
Rift Is Managed
27% Chance
Washington, London, and other G7 capitals contain the dispute by separating diesel supply arrangements from Ukraine security guarantees. Trump keeps the Putin diesel channel open but does not block UK or European military support for Kyiv.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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