Possible scenario
Service Backlash Builds
27% Chance
Operational strain becomes more visible at agencies with public-facing workloads, including the Social Security Administration, IRS, FAA and Veterans Affairs. Political pressure rises for targeted rehiring or emergency appropriations, but the administration resists a full reversal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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