Possible scenario
Managed Austerity Baseline
38% Chance
The administration keeps the smaller federal workforce as the new baseline and frames the cuts as a durable fiscal consolidation. Agencies rely on attrition, digital tools and selective contracting rather than broad rehiring, limiting immediate service disruptions.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Business Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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