Possible scenario
Narrow Safe Harbor
27% Chance
Congress and the administration may pivot from a rejected blanket shield to a narrower safe harbor tied to security audits, incident reporting, and reasonable model controls. This would give large AI companies a clearer compliance path without appearing to excuse the Hugging Face incident.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Business Services +0.4%
Tickers
- MSFT+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.