Possible scenario
Legislative Gridlock Deepens
28% Chance
The PL's House lead hardens opposition to Lula's fiscal and social-policy agenda, producing committee delays and recurring budget disputes. The most likely market effect is Brazil-specific risk repricing rather than a broad global shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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