Possible scenario
Center-Right Policy Leverage
42% Chance
Bolsonaro's Liberal Party uses its new House lead and enlarged Senate presence to bargain over fiscal rules, committee chairs, and regulatory oversight. Lula remains president, but the legislative agenda shifts toward tax restraint, public-spending limits, and less intervention in state-linked firms.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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