Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Succession Consolidates
18% Chance
Because Jair Bolsonaro remains barred from office until 2030, the party's congressional strength accelerates a succession strategy around a viable right-wing presidential figure. Governors and congressional leaders align around a platform of security, privatization, and fiscal conservatism.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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