Possible scenario
Western Crackdown Expands
34% Chance
The most likely path is a coordinated law-enforcement and sanctions response by the UK, Germany, France, the EU and the United States. Governments use indictments, expulsions and asset freezes against IRGC and Intelligence Ministry-linked facilitators, while stopping short of a broader confrontation with Tehran.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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