Possible scenario
Persistent Covert Campaign
28% Chance
Iran continues intimidation abroad but avoids a spectacular attack that would force a major Western response. Surveillance, threats to families in Iran, criminal recruitment and attempted entrapment remain the main tools used against dissidents in Europe and North America.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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