Possible scenario
Campaign Controversy Contained
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the arrest remains a localized political controversy involving Janelle Stelson's campaign or affiliated operation. Republicans cite it as evidence of lax immigration vetting, while the campaign says it followed available hiring procedures and had no role in the worker's visa status.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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