Possible scenario
Administrative Tightening
40% Chance
HHS and the Office of Refugee Resettlement respond with administrative fixes rather than a statutory overhaul. The most likely path is tighter documentation, more post-release checks, and a new internal audit process, because the denial rate is politically salient but does not by itself prove unlawful approvals.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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