Possible scenario
Saudi Military Escalation
25% Chance
Riyadh responds with heavier air raids against Houthi missile and drone launch infrastructure in Yemen. This raises regional risk premiums but remains below the threshold of a direct Saudi-Iran confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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