Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
18% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and U.S. diplomats secure a temporary reduction in cross-border attacks. This would not resolve the Yemen conflict, but it would lower immediate risk to Saudi aviation and reduce the geopolitical premium in crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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