Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruption
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Saudi Arabia keeps Riyadh airport closed through the announced date while air defenses and runway inspections are reinforced. Houthi attacks remain disruptive but do not spread to oil infrastructure or other major Saudi cities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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