Possible scenario
Regional Bargaining Intensifies
20% Chance
The controversy becomes leverage for regional actors already negotiating pipeline exports through Turkey. Baghdad, Erbil, Ankara, and Damascus push for better fees, guarantees, and security commitments before backing a U.S.-favored route.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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