Possible scenario
Ethics Review Slows Project
35% Chance
The most likely outcome is a Washington ethics review that delays but does not immediately kill the pipeline effort. Barrack’s Syria role, Trump’s sanctions relief, and the partner link give Congress and inspectors general a clear basis to demand records and recusal commitments.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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