Possible scenario
CLARITY Remains Dead
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the CLARITY Act does not return to a viable floor vote in 2026 after the procedural failure and subsequent rejection. Lawmakers may continue messaging around crypto market structure, but the all-time-low 15% pass odds imply investors should expect no comprehensive statutory framework in the near term.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN-3.7%
- -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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