Possible scenario
Contained Refinery Disruption
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia limits physical damage and keeps crude exports flowing while repairs proceed under tighter air defenses. Brent remains elevated because the attack confirms recurring risk to Saudi downstream assets, but markets do not price a broader regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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