Possible scenario
Rotation Replaces Panic
20% Chance
The market does not fully recover, but selling becomes more orderly as investors rotate away from expensive growth stocks into defensives, banks and cash-flow compounders. This would keep the Fear and Greed Index depressed without producing a broad liquidity event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.4%
- Healthcare +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.