Possible scenario
Relief Rally Stabilizes
38% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a partial rebound after the Fear and Greed Index reaches an extreme reading. Dip buyers return to large-cap technology if Treasury yields stop rising and investors judge the prior selloff as overextended rather than the start of a disorderly break.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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