Possible scenario
Lula Lead Holds
45% Chance
Lula's roughly 1 million vote lead proves large enough to survive the remaining count, and Brazil's Superior Electoral Court moves toward certification. Bolsonaro-allied lawyers continue filing objections, but courts treat the effort as insufficient to change the result.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.