Possible scenario
Court Fight Delays
25% Chance
Bolsonaro's camp and allied parties pursue annulment petitions aggressively enough to slow certification even if Lula remains ahead. The dispute stays inside Brazil's courts, but the combination of narrow margins and recent institutional trauma keeps markets cautious.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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