Possible scenario
Republicans Close Gap
31% Chance
The headline overstates the eventual advantage because Democratic voters bank ballots early while Republicans and conservative unaffiliated voters vote later. The North Carolina Republican Party focuses on rural counties and Election Day turnout, keeping the Senate and statewide races competitive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.