Possible scenario
Registration Misleads
16% Chance
Party registration becomes a weak guide to actual vote choice because unaffiliated voters make up a large share of ballots and some registered Democrats in rural areas vote Republican. Analysts downgrade the significance of the 27-point first-day edge once demographic and county-level data are released.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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