Possible scenario
Democratic Edge Holds
38% Chance
The first-day 27-point registration advantage proves directionally meaningful, even after the margin narrows as more unaffiliated and Republican voters cast ballots. Democrats retain a clear early-vote advantage in Wake, Mecklenburg, Durham, Guilford and Buncombe counties, improving Roy Cooper's standing against Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.