Possible scenario
U.S. Backfill Returns
24% Chance
Washington moves to restore some air-defense support to Saudi Arabia despite strained Patriot and interceptor inventories from Ukraine and Middle East demand. This outcome would likely involve limited transfers, accelerated production funding or temporary U.S.-managed coverage rather than a full return to abundant Patriot supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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