Possible scenario
Regional Attacks Escalate
22% Chance
The Houthi strike on Riyadh airport proves to be the start of a wider campaign against Saudi aviation, fuel storage or energy infrastructure. With Iran already having launched major attacks on Israel, investors price a higher probability of broader regional retaliation and disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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