Possible scenario
Coordinated EU Response
45% Chance
Germany uses the BND attribution to push a coordinated EU and NATO response against Russia's GRU Special Service for Disruptive Operations. The most likely path is targeted sanctions, expulsions, and tighter aviation-security rules rather than direct military retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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