Possible scenario
Probe Expands
35% Chance
The most likely path is a wider congressional and ethics review because the headline links Susie Wiles's daughter to a pro-Russian government and follows earlier Democratic calls for a probe of Kimberly Guilfoyle over the same $6 billion gas deal. The investigation focuses on lobbying disclosures, White House access, and whether any Trump administration official helped advance Republika Srpska's energy interests.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.