Possible scenario
US Sanctions Expand
38% Chance
Washington treats Bosnia's alert as credible counterintelligence reporting and moves against individuals or entities tied to Republika Srpska lobbying channels. The most likely response is targeted sanctions, visa restrictions, and FARA scrutiny rather than broad economic measures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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